How Tuesday’s Huge Brexit Vote Will Play Out — And What Occurs If The PM Loses

LONDON — It’s the story dominating British information this week – the second members of Parliament (MPs) lastly solid their vote on Prime Minister Theresa Could’s Brexit deal, figuring out the route the UK will take because it leaves the European Union.

Will the specter of exiting with no deal scare sufficient MPs into backing Could and her controversial plan for the Irish border, often called the “backstop”? Or will the European Analysis Group – a set of ardent pro-Brexit MPs passionately against Could’s deal – have the ability to collect up sufficient assist to topple the plan?

A technique or one other, it’s all individuals within the UK will probably be speaking about. However how will the week really pan out?

Prime Minister Theresa May's Brexit deal could be defeated in Parliament on Tuesday night.

PA Wire/PA Pictures

Prime Minister Theresa Could’s Brexit deal may very well be defeated in Parliament on Tuesday evening.

After a gruelling 5 days of parliamentary debate on Could’s Brexit deal, Tuesday night will see MPs lastly given the possibility to resolve whether or not to again the PM’s proposal on how the UK ought to depart the EU.

The so-called ‘significant vote’ comes a month later than initially anticipated after it was shelved by Could again in December, who admitted on the time that her deal would have been “rejected by a big margin”.

So the second that MPs file into the Home of Commons’ division lobbies will probably be an enormous one for the PM – has she achieved sufficient to persuade MPs, together with these in her personal celebration, to again her deal?

It gained’t take lengthy to search out out. As little as 15 minutes later – after MPs have had their names recorded and counted by Commons officers – Speaker John Bercow will announce the consequence.

<strong>Bercow will announce the results of the meaningful vote&nbsp;</strong>

PA Archive/PA Pictures

Bercow will announce the outcomes of the significant vote 

Right here’s the place issues get actually attention-grabbing. If Could has remarkably managed to whip up a majority for her deal, the UK will depart the EU underneath the phrases negotiated by the prime minister and her crew – together with the divisive Irish border backstop. (So long as it’s handed by the European Parliament and Council.)

If she hasn’t… issues get a bit extra difficult.

On Wednesday evening, the federal government suffered a big defeat within the Commons after insurgent Tory MPs joined forces with Labour to push via an modification which suggests Could could have simply three sitting days to return again to the Home with a brand new Brexit plan, as an alternative of the beforehand agreed 21.

The modification – put ahead by Tory MP Dominic Grieve in a bid to keep away from a no-deal Brexit – will give MPs the possibility to vote on different Brexit plans – together with a second referendum, a ‘managed’ no-deal or a ‘Norway-plus’ possibility.

If a brand new deal is agreed by Parliament, the federal government may return to Brussels in an try and renegotiate a deal. However, given the truth that Brexit day – March 29 – is simply weeks away, this might in all probability result in an extension of Article 50, which is the authorized course of that units forth a rustic’s exit from the EU.

Lastly, if Could loses the Brexit vote, Labour may set off a no-confidence vote within the authorities, with chief Jeremy Corbyn asserting on Thursday it might set off such a movement “in the meanwhile we choose it to have the most effective likelihood of success”.

If MPs decide they don’t have any confidence within the authorities, this in flip may set off a common election.

Buckle in of us – it’s going to be a hell of per week.